Well it didn't exactly come the next day but those pesky Western Conference teams couldn't figure out their seeding until the last night of the regular season. By the way speaking of the NBA's abbreviated season and the final night of regular unimportant games, what a completely passionless night of basketball it was. I mean you had the Michael Jordan led Bobcats finish the season with an uninspiring 20 point loss to the Knicks C team. You had the Bulls without D-Rose demolish the horrible shooting Cavs. You had the Wizards (yes that team) hammer the Heat's D-league affiliate by 34 points. And lets not forget the New Jersey Nets getting ushered out of town by Governor Chistie without so much as a good luck pat, and preceding to get destroyed by the Raptors with nothing but 10 day contract guys to the tune of 31 points. So if you are a paying customer on the final night of the NBA regular season do you get some type of say in what goes on during the game? I mean how great would it be for fans to get the chance to draw up and out of bounds play, or create a lineup purely made up of the bottom 5 guys on the team roster. Heck why not have a lucky fan win an opportunity to suit up during the game. This is what we have come to as with teams having nothing to play for, and better yet the bad teams approaching the concepts of the dreaded thought of "Tanking", why not put some life into it. Put it this way, there were 13 games on the schedule last night consisting of 26 teams. This means 13 arena's for moderately full to the tune of 65% of seats sold. Let's take a very big leap and say each arena brought in roughly $100k in gate receipts for these games. As a fan would you like the fact that you were able to carve out a couple floor seats to watch the Mavericks and Hawks play for a mere $250 bucks only to get treated to a dismal, boring game in which one team destroyed the other team all the while getting an up close chance to watch the likes of Brandon Wright, Dominique Jones, Eric Dampier and yes the Tar Heel who just wont seem to retire, Jerry Stackhouse? I mean something has to be done about the final 2 weeks of the NBA season to justify all this money fans are spending right? I digress, and moving on here we go with my Western Conference Playoff Predictions!
We will go in order here for the sake of counting from 1 to 8! Those pesky San Antonio Spurs continue to amaze, surprise, and confound me. Here is the not so little secret in NBA circles and around the most supportive fans; Greg Poppovich is the best coach currently in Basketball and it isn't even close! As you know I am a Laker guy and by that nature supposed to hate the spurs, which as a fan I completely do! But as a pure basketball fan and historian, there is nothing to shake my belief in Pop as the man amongst boys. First of all the guy is a total average Joe by his persona, relationship with media, and his mannerisms. I can't think of a better guy I would want speaking to a group of reporters when one goofy, young, journalist to be asks a completely ridiculous question. I envision something like this; "Coach it seemed Duncan seem to be step slow out there tonight are you worried about his health or is there something else going on with him"? Popovich; "I am sorry who said that? Let's see how old is Timmy these days? Yeah if it's not is age, or his health I'm wondering if maybe Tony hurt his feelings at the shoot around? Then again he is old, and we won by 30, but maybe I need to find out as the Coach what really is going on"!
Okay I know get on with it! So the Spurs won 50 or more games for a record breaking 13 consecutive seasons. Sprinkle in a few championships here and there and with the same core group of guys and you see why Pop is amazing! At any rate they are the #1 seed and get the chance to redeem themselves from an ugly first round exit last year to the dark horse Memphis Grizzlies. The Spurs get the Utah Jazz in the first round who made an impressive run just to get into the playoffs with Al Jefferson putting the team on his back over the final 4 weeks of the season. Unfortunately for big Al I don't see much with the Jazz to be convinced they can do anything more than win 1 game at home. I got Spurs in 5 with none of the games being close and Pop doing a masterful job of keeping his big 3 under 30 minutes a game for the 1st round.
Now we get to the very interesting part of the playoff bracket! The #2 seed Oklahoma Sonics, sorry Thunder my bad, playing against the defending Champion Mavericks as the #7 seed. Call me crazy, which most people do, but I see this as a 7 game 1st round series without question. I know the Mavericks have struggled all year to be consistent, I know Mark Cuban was a fool to let go of Tyson Chandler (see NY Knicks success) and Barea, I know Lamar Odom completely imploded the locker room, and I know Dirk seemed a step slower this year with age starting to creep up. With all that said, I believe whole heartily in the idea that Championship teams that are seemingly down for a long period of time somehow know how to get back up at just the right time. There isn't an expert out there or anyone on ESPN who thinks the Thunder aren't going to steamroll the Mavs. I think the Thunder win, but I think they do so during Game 7 on their home court and by a slim margin. The Mavs are to well coached, have a great match up nightmare in Dirk, and still play really good team defense. If Harden is not completely healthy and ready to assume his normal role for the Thunder, the Mavs could even win the series. Final thought on this series is this; As silky smooth and efficient as Kevin Durant plays the game, I just haven't seen him rise to the occasion when everything is going against him, or when a really physical defender is taking away his path to the lane. When teams force him to shoot jumpers all game, the Thunder become stagnant and start losing their ball movement. Harden is the key for them moving deep into the playoffs!
My beloved Lakers check in at the #3 seed and will be squaring off against a tough and very loose Denver Nuggets squad sans any superstar in their lineup. Okay so this is where the majority of the Lakers detractors will point to a great match up in which the Nuggets somehow know how to hold Kobe Bryant in check by listing the statistics from the past few seasons against the Nuggets in the regular season. Yes I know Kobe shot 6 for 28 in the Nuggets lone win against them this year and the other 2 games were decided by less than 10 points. I also know that the Nuggets like to play at a frenetic pace and keep the tempo of the game consistently fast. That being said I don't see this series being all that close, but with the Lakers coming in without their best perimeter defender (Metta World Elbow) and Matt Barnes ailing with ankle issues, this looks like a series that goes to the Lakers in six. The Nuggets have a terrific blend of solid NBA players with a couple of potential All Star caliber players in Lawson and Gallinari. Of course everyone knows the problem with the make up of this team is exposed in the playoffs. In crunch time who do the Nuggets go to for confidence in an ability to get a bucket. For stretches during the season Ty Lawson has been the guy to make the decisions, but at the same time he defers to Andre Miller who is also on the floor during crunch time. By trading away Nene and his albatross of a contract, the Nuggets were financially wise and kept their flexibility. The problem is they sacrificed their only true low post threat in Nene. As great as Kenneth Faried has been this season with his energy and overall willingness to do anything on the floor, he is not a go to guy on the block with an assortment of posts moves. He is a garbage man who picks up any lose balls, offensive rebounds and can put them back with thundering authority. From there you go to Javale McGee, Mozgov, Birdman Anderson, Koufos and the perimeter only shooting stretch 4 Al Harrington. Not one of these guys is putting any sort of fear into Gasol, or Bynum. And that is where the series will be decided as Bynum and Gasol will dominate on both ends while also allowing for Kobe to get at least 2 or 3 games with 30 or more. The paint will decide the series and Lakers will forcibly throw the ball into their 7 footers with constant authority.
And now what I think will be one of the most exciting series of the first round featuring the #4 seed Clippers against the #5 seed Grizzlies. Now despite the Clippers being listed as the #4 seed, Memphis actually has home court advantage due to Del Negro inexplicably deciding to mail in their final game against the Knicks by sitting CP3. When you are a young team who happens to walk into a franchise changing #1 pick in Blake Griffin, and then happen to steal away from your Staples co-tenant, a franchise point guard and top 10 player in Chris Paul, you don't sacrifice an opportunity to start your first playoffs together by having the home court. I get that teams want to rest their stars for a long playoff run and I know CP3 has been a little banged up, but home court in the first round is the single most important thing you can get with young players. Outside of CP3 and for the time being Coach Billups, only Kenyon Martin, Caron Butler, and Mo Williams have significant experience in the post season. The Clippers for all of the excitement of the season with Lob City, and Blake posterizing one team after another, are still a flawed team with no sense of offense outside of Chris Paul's brilliance. Caron Butler is pretty much not utilized at all, and is not the type of player to stand in corners and catch and shoot. Kenyon Martin is obviously on his down slope, but the one thing I thought he would bring to the Clippers was toughness and a nasty edge that frankly hasn't been there as witnessed by teams constantly taking Blake Griffin down with hard fouls! Mo Williams has been told basically to come off the bench and fire away which I am sure he doesn't mind, but also remember he was the starting point guard averaging nearly 40 minutes a game for a Cavaliers team with a certain MVP for 3 years playing deep into the playoffs. And then of course you have Billups out with the Achilles injury in nice suits helping on sidelines and being the veteran voice to the team. The Clippers just don't have any type of rhythm to their game and a team like the Grizzlies will exploit that to death. Speaking of the Grizzlies, you can't tell me there isn't a single team in the Western Conference that wants to play them. They are sneaky good, with a front line as good if not better than the vaunted 7 footers of the Lakers. They are athletic with Gay, Mayo, Allen on the wings, and smart with Conley and yes Mr. Hibachi Gilbert Arenas at he point. They get after you on the defensive side of the ball and force you into their shot blockers and to take jump shots. The key for Grizzlies to improve on last years out of know where success, is the health of Zach Randolph. Z-Bo was the best player in both the 1st and 2nd round of last years Western Conference Playoffs. In order for the Grizzlies to move on he will once again have to be his teams best player, or at least 2nd best behind Rudy Gay who didn't even play in last years playoffs. With that said I got Grizzlies in 6 games possibly even 5. The key X-factor for the Grizz will be OJ Mayo who has been playing out of his mind this past month and no one has even noticed. There is a reason why Mayo has closed games for the Grizz instead of their best perimeter defender Tony Allen, and it is not because of Mayo's offensive game. Mayo has become a very good defender in his own right and has forced Lionel Hollins to give him more time at the end of games. This is my key player for this series and unfortunately for the Clippers their fantastic season goes out in the 1st round as the summer brings all kinds of attention for them and whether or not they lock up Chris Paul with a long term deal!
So here we go with the 2nd round! We have the Spurs going up against the Grizzlies (Oh my goodness) and the Thunder elbowing it out with the Lakers! Couldn't ask for a better 2nd round than this folks! But you will have to wait another day for the 2nd round predictions as well as my conference final predictions. I need to keep everyone enticed and cannot lay all of my thoughts out in one blog! And besides this is already one long read, so with that I leave you with one thought for the day:
Why is it that in the National Hockey League fans praise and even cheer for violent physical attacks even more so in the playoffs? I mean it is win or go home but in some cases fans don't care they just want to see fights! I would love feedback on my random hockey thought so let me know what you think about these NHL playoffs and the excessive violence that is causing for calls of sweeping change in the league! Follow my blog and leave me comments on my hockey thought, and any other comments on by blog whether you liked it, hated it, or were extremely tired of reading such as long post
Friday, April 27, 2012
Friday, April 13, 2012
Playoff Predictions Part 1 Eastern Conference
Alright hoop fans I am back for part 1 of my NBA playoff predictions in the Eastern Conference! The Western Conference Playoff Predictions will be out tomorrow. This week's blog will clearly give you at least one guys perspective of who is shining the brightest at the right time. And with all due respect to the wonderful writing and statistical breakdowns of ESPN's very own John Hollinger, I am not basing my playoff predictions on any advanced metrics or PER numbers. I will give you my very own take based on my observation of the teams and how they are playing currently. And on we go!
We will start off in the Eastern Conference. As of today here is a look at the current playoff seedings in order from 1st to 8th: Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, and the New York Knicks. Interesting to note is that the 4 through the 6 seeds are all currently tied which means with between 8 and 10 games left those seeds could completely flip flop. More interesting to note is that we are set up with the current seedings for at least 2 great first round series. The Knicks and their now defunct Linsanity, will move up to the 7th seed for an extremely interesting first round date wit the love able and huggable fellows from Miami. This actually bodes well for the 76ers who I believe have a better chance at being competitive with the Bulls in the first round then they do with the Heat. Outside of the switch between the 7th and 8th seeds I see the rest of the teams staying where they are. This means we get a great first round treat in the Pacers and Magic squaring off in which could be SVG's playoff swan song! And finally we have the Hawks and Celtics paired up in the incredibly unentertaining first round snooze fest!
Alright so here is how I think the first round shapes up. The Bulls riding a continued stretch of poor health and limited team chemistry, beat the 76ers in a grueling 6 game series with Derick Rose struggling mightily throughout the series and Lou Williams of the 76ers making a name for himself while becoming the best player in the series. The Heat and Knicks will turn their first round series into the most entertaining first rounds in many years. Lebron will dominate as the Knicks will have no answer for him, and Carmelo will show the unforgiving NY fans why they are somehow blessed and yet stuck with him for better or for worse! Heat win in 6 games all decided by 5 points or less! Carmelo wins 2 games with sheer offensive domination, while Tyson Chandler shows everyone why the Heat cannot win in the Finals without a center! The Pacers and Magic will be another great first round series if anything just to see if SVG or Dwight Howard get fired during an actual game! Here is the thing about the Howard/SVG spat, it doesn't matter which side you sit on in terms of employee and employer relations. Really what it boils down to his a coach in a professional sport is the boss of the players tasked with playing that sport. Pick a sport and I can point out at least 1 coach who is completely over is head and has no business keeping his job and the players know it. The funny thing is that SVG is not that coach. He is one of the better coaches in the NBA despite what Mr. Shaq will say about him! I don't know another coach that could take the collection of players he has been given and still be in a position to play deep in the playoffs each year! What is really sad is that players egos, specifically superstar or perceived superstar players, always eventually drive them to acts of insanity! Forget one moment if you will for all of the talk of Howard signing or not signing a contract extension, and aside from all of the facts or myths coming out of the media, why wouldn't Howard at his level of stature be the leader of the team and do anything necessary to not only publicly support his coach, but also internally support him until the season is over? Moving on Magic get by the Pacers in the only 7 game series of the playoffs riding Dwight Howard who dominates on both ends and shows you the potential he has when he puts his head down and plays! Finally the snooze fest that will see the Celtics roll the Hawks in 5 games. The dominating efficiency in the Celtics dismantling of the Hawks will be a sign of things to come down the road!
This leaves with some very interesting 2nd round match ups in which I believe will not bear out like everyone else thinks. We will have the Bulls squaring off against the Celtics while the Heat will play the Magic. What strikes me as extremely important to look at is the play of the Bulls without their best player, as well as the play of the Heat without Dwayne Wade. The Bulls are an incredible 17 and 7 without Rose while playing and beating top teams such as the Heat during this stretch. The Heat are 9 and 0 without Wade during which time Lebronblogosphere here but I believe the Celtics will beat the Bulls culminating with a game 7 win on the Bull's home court! My simple basis for this is that Derrick Rose is not healthy and has not been healthy for some time. The addition of Rip Hamilton to the Bulls back court was a great move but his health has kept him out. Add this up and there is not enough chemistry for the Bulls starting unit to get past the absolute team chemistry in Boston. The Celtics are playing extremely well heading into the playoffs and they are masters at managing their bodies to be able to operate at full strength for the stretch run. That and Doc Rivers is the 2nd best coach in the NBA right now and just a shade behind the best in Greg Poppovich. There is your shocker of the Eastern Conference!
Now the Heat and Magic are where it gets very interesting as well. I believe if his back issues are not as big a deal as feared, that Dwight Howard will have the kind of playoffs that propels him into the superstar stratosphere without any perceptions of negativity. Howard will average 30 and 15 against the Heat and will his team to a 7th game on the road in Miami. Ultimately Lebron James will show everyone what he is capable of when he assumes the role of the unquestioned best player in the world at the most optimal moment. Oh and after the Magic lose in game 7 all the kudos will go to Dwight Howard for his amazing playoff run in which he will state he is bitter about losing and will not stand for anything less than a championship for the next season. Shortly after that SVG will be fired in addition to Otis Smith and the Orlando Magic will sell their soul to Dwight Howard the unbridled king of the Magic Kingdom!
And to that we come to the Eastern Conference Finals in which the veteran Boston Celtics will take on the hated and loved all at the same time Miami Heat! This will be the best series thus far and no one will be disappointed from the East Coast to the West Coast! When it comes to the art of controlling a game thoroughly and concisely, Rajon Rondo is in a league of his own. I think he is the difference maker in the series. With Avery Bradley the newest Doc Rivers sleeper playing the rabid one on one defense against Wade, and Garnett cancelling out Bosh, it comes down to Rondo and Pierce against Lebron. I think Lebron will redeem himself and have a wonderful series that will go 7 games. But, and I cannot believe I am saying this as a Laker lifer, I think Boston shocks the NBA and defeats the Heat in Miami for game 7. This is the moment where everyone stops reading this blog and says "this guy is nuts"! Maybe so, but there is something about this abbreviated season and my nostalgia for the Celtics going out with one last hurrah! Of course you will have to wait for my next blog to see the Western Conference predictions and my further nostalgic picks! Whether you loved my blog or hated it, I am desperate for your comments!
P.S. I am feeling really good about basketball now as I have the pleasure of coaching my daughters 2nd grade team. Here is the fun part! My daughter has now played 3 seasons of basketball and she is constantly asking me what she needs to work on. She handles the rock like me in my prime, and has this uncanny desire to guard the best player on the other team. Her heart is as huge if not bigger than mine and it makes me smile just thinking about how lucky I am to have the opportunity to share with my daughter a love and passion that continues on in my life!
Until part 2 I bid you all a farewell on my 36th birthday! I am getting old!
We will start off in the Eastern Conference. As of today here is a look at the current playoff seedings in order from 1st to 8th: Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, and the New York Knicks. Interesting to note is that the 4 through the 6 seeds are all currently tied which means with between 8 and 10 games left those seeds could completely flip flop. More interesting to note is that we are set up with the current seedings for at least 2 great first round series. The Knicks and their now defunct Linsanity, will move up to the 7th seed for an extremely interesting first round date wit the love able and huggable fellows from Miami. This actually bodes well for the 76ers who I believe have a better chance at being competitive with the Bulls in the first round then they do with the Heat. Outside of the switch between the 7th and 8th seeds I see the rest of the teams staying where they are. This means we get a great first round treat in the Pacers and Magic squaring off in which could be SVG's playoff swan song! And finally we have the Hawks and Celtics paired up in the incredibly unentertaining first round snooze fest!
Alright so here is how I think the first round shapes up. The Bulls riding a continued stretch of poor health and limited team chemistry, beat the 76ers in a grueling 6 game series with Derick Rose struggling mightily throughout the series and Lou Williams of the 76ers making a name for himself while becoming the best player in the series. The Heat and Knicks will turn their first round series into the most entertaining first rounds in many years. Lebron will dominate as the Knicks will have no answer for him, and Carmelo will show the unforgiving NY fans why they are somehow blessed and yet stuck with him for better or for worse! Heat win in 6 games all decided by 5 points or less! Carmelo wins 2 games with sheer offensive domination, while Tyson Chandler shows everyone why the Heat cannot win in the Finals without a center! The Pacers and Magic will be another great first round series if anything just to see if SVG or Dwight Howard get fired during an actual game! Here is the thing about the Howard/SVG spat, it doesn't matter which side you sit on in terms of employee and employer relations. Really what it boils down to his a coach in a professional sport is the boss of the players tasked with playing that sport. Pick a sport and I can point out at least 1 coach who is completely over is head and has no business keeping his job and the players know it. The funny thing is that SVG is not that coach. He is one of the better coaches in the NBA despite what Mr. Shaq will say about him! I don't know another coach that could take the collection of players he has been given and still be in a position to play deep in the playoffs each year! What is really sad is that players egos, specifically superstar or perceived superstar players, always eventually drive them to acts of insanity! Forget one moment if you will for all of the talk of Howard signing or not signing a contract extension, and aside from all of the facts or myths coming out of the media, why wouldn't Howard at his level of stature be the leader of the team and do anything necessary to not only publicly support his coach, but also internally support him until the season is over? Moving on Magic get by the Pacers in the only 7 game series of the playoffs riding Dwight Howard who dominates on both ends and shows you the potential he has when he puts his head down and plays! Finally the snooze fest that will see the Celtics roll the Hawks in 5 games. The dominating efficiency in the Celtics dismantling of the Hawks will be a sign of things to come down the road!
This leaves with some very interesting 2nd round match ups in which I believe will not bear out like everyone else thinks. We will have the Bulls squaring off against the Celtics while the Heat will play the Magic. What strikes me as extremely important to look at is the play of the Bulls without their best player, as well as the play of the Heat without Dwayne Wade. The Bulls are an incredible 17 and 7 without Rose while playing and beating top teams such as the Heat during this stretch. The Heat are 9 and 0 without Wade during which time Lebronblogosphere here but I believe the Celtics will beat the Bulls culminating with a game 7 win on the Bull's home court! My simple basis for this is that Derrick Rose is not healthy and has not been healthy for some time. The addition of Rip Hamilton to the Bulls back court was a great move but his health has kept him out. Add this up and there is not enough chemistry for the Bulls starting unit to get past the absolute team chemistry in Boston. The Celtics are playing extremely well heading into the playoffs and they are masters at managing their bodies to be able to operate at full strength for the stretch run. That and Doc Rivers is the 2nd best coach in the NBA right now and just a shade behind the best in Greg Poppovich. There is your shocker of the Eastern Conference!
Now the Heat and Magic are where it gets very interesting as well. I believe if his back issues are not as big a deal as feared, that Dwight Howard will have the kind of playoffs that propels him into the superstar stratosphere without any perceptions of negativity. Howard will average 30 and 15 against the Heat and will his team to a 7th game on the road in Miami. Ultimately Lebron James will show everyone what he is capable of when he assumes the role of the unquestioned best player in the world at the most optimal moment. Oh and after the Magic lose in game 7 all the kudos will go to Dwight Howard for his amazing playoff run in which he will state he is bitter about losing and will not stand for anything less than a championship for the next season. Shortly after that SVG will be fired in addition to Otis Smith and the Orlando Magic will sell their soul to Dwight Howard the unbridled king of the Magic Kingdom!
And to that we come to the Eastern Conference Finals in which the veteran Boston Celtics will take on the hated and loved all at the same time Miami Heat! This will be the best series thus far and no one will be disappointed from the East Coast to the West Coast! When it comes to the art of controlling a game thoroughly and concisely, Rajon Rondo is in a league of his own. I think he is the difference maker in the series. With Avery Bradley the newest Doc Rivers sleeper playing the rabid one on one defense against Wade, and Garnett cancelling out Bosh, it comes down to Rondo and Pierce against Lebron. I think Lebron will redeem himself and have a wonderful series that will go 7 games. But, and I cannot believe I am saying this as a Laker lifer, I think Boston shocks the NBA and defeats the Heat in Miami for game 7. This is the moment where everyone stops reading this blog and says "this guy is nuts"! Maybe so, but there is something about this abbreviated season and my nostalgia for the Celtics going out with one last hurrah! Of course you will have to wait for my next blog to see the Western Conference predictions and my further nostalgic picks! Whether you loved my blog or hated it, I am desperate for your comments!
P.S. I am feeling really good about basketball now as I have the pleasure of coaching my daughters 2nd grade team. Here is the fun part! My daughter has now played 3 seasons of basketball and she is constantly asking me what she needs to work on. She handles the rock like me in my prime, and has this uncanny desire to guard the best player on the other team. Her heart is as huge if not bigger than mine and it makes me smile just thinking about how lucky I am to have the opportunity to share with my daughter a love and passion that continues on in my life!
Until part 2 I bid you all a farewell on my 36th birthday! I am getting old!
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